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We investigate three facets of cross-sectional variation in the risk of stock price crashes:
actual crash incidence, and two predictors of that risk, accounting opacity and the option
smirk curve. We show that all three of these variables are related. Option smirks and
accounting opacity each independently predict cross-sectional variation in crash risk and
crash magnitude. The slope of the smirk curve and opacity are themselves correlated at
extremely high levels of statistical significance, indicating that the market is aware of the link
between opacity and crash risk. Nevertheless, even controlling for the option smirk, several
measures of accounting opacity continue to be reliably associated with crash risk, suggesting
that the options market does not fully utilize the predictive value of accounting opacity.
Moreover, some of our results are consistent with behavioral models in which strong recent
performance is extrapolated too far into the future, only to result in a major reversal when
those expectations are disappointed.
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موفق و پایدار باشید.